Odds of Dying

The CPSC says fires where the mattress was 'one of the first' items to ignite results in 440 deaths annually.

What does 'one of the first' mean? How much responsibility should the mattress have for these deaths? How many lives will the new open flame mattress fire law actually save? The new law will only delay the mattress burning, not stop it. The CPSC hopes to save up to 3/4 of these lives or about 300 per year after ten or more years when all mattresses are replaced. The real number might be far lower, the real number saved can be calculated to only 21 using the CPSC's own data.

If we accept the CPSC number of 300 this means your risk of dying from a mattress fire, with 300 million people in the US, is one in one million

If you accept 100, or 50 as the number saved your risk is one in 3 Million, or one in 6 Million. If the true number is 21, your risk is one in fourteen million.

By comparison your risk of death from other accidents is far higher. Here are some risks from the National Safety Council: One year odds are approximated by dividing the 2002 population (287,941,220) by the number of deaths. Lifetime odds are approximated by dividing the one-year odds by the life expectancy of a person born in 2002 (77.3 years).

Odds of Death Due to Injury, United States, 2002

Type of Accident or Manner of Injury			Deaths	One Year Odds	Lifetime Odds
All External Causes of Mortality, V01-Y89, U01, U03			164,112	1,755	23
	Deaths Due to Unintentional (Accidental) Injuries, V01-X59, Y85-Y86		106,742	2,698	35
		Transport Accidents, V01-V99, Y85	48,366	5,953	77
		Pedestrian, V01-V09	6,091	47,273	612
		Pedalcyclist, V10-V19	767	375,412	4,857
		Air and space transport accidents, V95-V97	653	440,951	5,704


		Car occupant, V40-V49	16,337	17,625	228

		Accidental poisoning by and exposure to noxious substances, X40-X49	17,550	16,407	212

		Legal execution, Y35.5	67	4,297,630	55,597

You can see you have a far greater risk of dying from the chemicals in our modern environment. You are more likely to die from toxic chemicals than to die in a car accident. Now, the government is requiring more toxic chemicals in all our mattresses.

Your risk of legal execution by our government might be greatly increased with this new law.